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Reston Town Center: 08/2016 Technical Market Analysis (Condos)

September 17, 2016

Market Activity

 

The following analysis discusses market statistics of condos in the Reston, VA area, specifically in zip code 20190. 

 

Closed Sales vs. Active Listings

The trend of active listings of condos/coops in Reston increases in January 2014 through the present. If you notice, during that same time frame, the level of closed sales remains relatively consistent and flat. This widening gap between active listings and closed sales indicates an excess of supply in the market relative to a consistent level of demand. This surplus of supply can ultimately put downward pressure on prices.  

Supply and Demand

 

Months of Supply

The Months of Supply Chart can tells us how many months it would take for all the current Reston Condos for sale in the market to sell. As a rule of thumb, 4 to 6 months of supply is considered a balanced market. Less than 4 months is a seller’s market, and greater than 6 months is a buyers market. Based on this trend, the Reston condo market has gravitated away from a sellers market (Q3 2011-Q1 2014) and is in the balanced/buyer's market territory.

 

 

Average Days on Market of Sold Properties

This chart shows a steady increase in the average number of days it takes to sell a condo in Reston from around 20-25 in 2013 to over 80 in Q1 2016. An increased amount of sellers relative to buyers makes it more difficult for sellers to sell at their condos. This leads to longer amounts of time to sell properties and/or a reduction in prices.  

Pricing Trends

 

Average Sold Prices

This charts depicts average sold prices of Condos/Coops in Reston over 3 years. As you can see, there is a flat to downward trend depending on the time frame that you are examining. A trend worth noting is the average sales prices from Q2 2015 to Q1 2016. There was about a 10% decline in average prices during this time period. The good news is that there was an uptick in average prices in Q2 2016. 

Pricing Ratios

 

Average Sale Price Relative to Original List Price (Discount to List Price)

This chart can give you an idea of the average reduction in price from the original list price to the final sales price. Over the past few years (from Q1 2013 to present) you can see this line trending downwards, which indicates a widening gap between the original list price and the final sales price. In Q1 2013, the average discount to list was about 1%. Contrast this to a 3% discount in Q2 2016. This trend is a result of an increasing supply of condos on the market which has forced sellers to lower prices in order to meet demand.  

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